Latest Posts

How to win the Premier League

As the new season is upon us all football fans up and down the country will no doubt have fresh hopes about what the season will bring. Transfers have been done and hopes raised. But what is it that makes a team successful? What is the most defining characteristic?

The defining characteristic

As is well known, a lot of club revenue gets spent on wages to attract top players. This is in the hope that buying talent buys performances. Quite

The footy season – My general approach

Now the football has started again, here is an insight into how I approach the whole season.

Off-season

During off season I am most active on research and new information for the next season. I gather a huge amount of data during the season and during the off-season I analyse it to take ideas forward to the next season. Same story this year.

I started analysing football matches in the 80’s, so I tend to focus on very specific problems …

Shergar cup and false markets

How would you like some free money? A couple of clicks and you have instant profit on your screen (but maybe not your account!)

Book percentages

In an outright market than can only be one winner. That is why, if you add up all the odds and percentages, the market will settle on a book value of 100%. If you can lay above 100% then effectively your payout is only 100% but your profit will be anything above that.

If you …

New Version of Bet Angel Professional

Always looking to take your trading further forward, we are pleased to announce a new version of Bet Angel.

You can download it from here: –

http://www.betangel.com/download/?product=BetAngelPro

The new version of Bet Angel is available for free to any existing users or trialists.

Key new features in this version

The main feature of this version is the introduction of Automation Signals giving automation a huge amount of new flexibility and control. It opens the door to many new possibilities. (For the …

US PGA Golf

The ‘fourth major’ starts today in the US and should provide some opportunities. That said, I temper my enthusiasm as the Golf season wears on as history has shown that I do worse at each major as the year progresses. I don’t know exactly why that is, but I suspect as form lines get stronger, opportunities weaken.

The US PGA at first tee last year turned over £5m.

Some of the stats I’ve used here have come from the excellent Golf Stats

Trading Good-Way

From a trading perspective I like multi day high quality meetings. They usually throw up some good opportunities and are a welcome addition to the month.

Goodwood

As you may know, these higher quality meetings produce extra volume and that can change the characteristics significantly. But don’t let Goodwood fool you into thinking it’s the same as a Royal Ascot or Cheltenham, it behaves very differently. Goodwood benefits from decent volume but it’s not as much as some major meetings. …

Making hay while the sun shines

An old phrase, but one that is equally applicable to trading at this time of year. As we are now in peak trading season, it’s time to harvest!

All about the execution

At this time of year, you have many opportunities, so I will stretch every sinew to do as much as I can. Everything else has to take a back seat, I’ll be a little less active on the blogging, fewer education events, less time for chit chat or …

Do Betfair markets reflect true opinion?

OK, for years the exchange mechanism has provided a very useful pricing mechanism. A careful aggregation of demand between people competing on a level playing field and it has provided a beautiful insight into the way free markets can work to mysteriously, accurately, price an event –  in this case the prediction that something will win a sports event.

Changes

But we have been watching closely as the market has gradually decoupled from it’s long established core. What do we mean …