Latest Posts

How bookmakers make money

Back when, ‘I was but lad’, I stumbled into the world of bookmakers.

I arrived there via the football pools and thought I’d apply similar techniques at the bookmakers. But I soon realised there were a few problems doing this.

Problems

The first problem I had was getting the bet on, I couldn’t really bet in the size I wanted without being limited. Secondly, I could only do plain old vanilla betting. If I tried something more complex I’d often …

Who scores first?

I’m just watching the Man City vs West Ham match and West Ham have taken a ‘shock’ lead according to most sources, but how often does the away team score first?

Goals

Football is a generally low scoring contest, but not only that you can have a lot of shots and still not score. The chance of a goal from a statistical perspective is interesting because goals are ‘rare’. This lends itself to seeing away teams taking a ‘shock’ lead

Most and least volatile racecourses to trade

I did a tweet recently that stated a little trading fact, that Chelmsford City was the most volatile course. I had a fairly immediate retort, that stated it wasn’t a fact but was ‘just’ an opinion. It was actually a carefully researched fact.

Volatility

I’ve collected data on volatility right from day one of my trading journey and have built up a massive database of data. One of the things I study is how volatile the market is.

I measure …

St Leger meeting

The oldest classic horse race in the world is almost upon us again and while it marks the closing of the flat turf season, tradition dictates that it also marks an upturn in financial markets if folklore is to be believed. “Sell in May and go away, don’t come back till St Leger day”

Come back on St Leger day

There is a general ‘theory’ that during the summer stocks languish and only when everybody is back to their desk

High probability Betfair trading strategies

Sounds nice doesn’t it, winning positions regularly topping up your account? Please send your $37 to…….

New strategy

With the start of the jumps season just around the corner, I’m going to be pursuing a new, automated, in-play strategy. I did all the hard work last year qualifying what I wanted to do and test the assumptions, which are often wrong. So now it’s time to put it into practice.

It will lose money and on a frequent basis and …

Little and often – On Greyhounds

Greyhounds markets are another good example of little and often. The average Greyhound race only turns over £15k or so per race so it’s really not a very liquid market and even then, the money arrives really late. but are very large amounts of greyhound races.

I recently revisited the Greyhounds markets after a seven-year absence.  If you want some background as to why have a read of this blog post: –

Going Grey

Since revisiting the markets I’ve now …

Psychology in sport – Tennis

I started writing a broad piece on Psychology but it got too big, so I’ve broken off chunks and will list them on the blog for your interest.

Psychology everywhere

Psychology isn’t something that is limited to the minds of traders, it’s out there on the sports field and in the associated markets as well. I’ve observed all sorts of strange biases that just don’t have any place in a rational world, but feature heavily and persistently in the markets …

Marmite Monday

It’s that day of the year that you either love or hate. The August bank holiday in the UK brings a whole bunch of racing, all on the same day.

There will be lots of meetings on Monday and about a billion races. This may seem like heaven for some, but it’s a nightmare for others. Quite a few races will attract little liquidity, a lot isn’t of quality and many races will clash meaning that you can’t do much

Trading Football on Betfair – Trading under 2.5 goals

The Soccer Mystic profiling tool is a way to help identify opportunities and give you that all important edge when trading soccer matches – it’s packed with a number of features to assist you when trading any of the Match odds, Over/Under or Correct Score markets and will help you pin point what times to get into and out of positions for the most value.

If you prefer the Over/Under markets then Soccer Mystic can offer you some invaluable help, …